This alert expired on 2 September 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 69th strongest of the 102 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. The last comparable one was on 10 August 2026.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued September 2 at 3:25PM EDT until September 2 at 3:45PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 518,531 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- July 9, 2026 · score 48 · 4.3 km
- June 27, 2026 · score 43 · 6.4 km
- July 18, 2026 · score 48 · 6.7 km
How we know
Confirmed by 2 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 41 out of 100, at 86 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Computed under scoring rules v4. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 41 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 86% |
| Coordinates | 38.4067, -77.4898 |
| Nearest City | Fredericksburg (12 km) |
| Population Exposed | 518.5K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-02T19:25:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.a12630c161f0bbeb301e52d5fda5530c59c19d25.001.1 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | King George, VA; Culpeper, VA; Fauquier, VA; Rappahannock, VA |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued September 2 at 3:25PM EDT until September 2 at 3:45PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-09-02T15:45:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.a12630c161f0bbeb301e52d5fda5530c59c19d25.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.a28331d287e7cd8dd796b04745f425d032e81529.001.1"] |
| Iem TypeSummary | M |
| Iem Magnitude | 46 |
| Iem Unit | mph |
| Iem City | Quantico Marine Corp |
| Iem County | Prince William |
| Iem State | VA |
| Iem Wfo | LWX |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_M_38.640_-77.220_1788373680000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1788373680000,"latitude":38.64,"longitude":-77.22},{"id":"iem_M_38.240_-76.830_1788375540000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1788375540000,"latitude":38.24,"longitude":-76.83},{"id":"iem_M_38.510_-77.300_1788374460000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1788374460000,"latitude":38.51,"longitude":-77.3}] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Want to know when something happens near Fredericksburg?
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 41/100, near Fredericksburg (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 185 scientific monitoring sources.